Sorry folks, nothing good to extrapolate based on the just released (and soon to be revised lower one final time) GDP data – from Jan Hatzius: “Implications for Q3 growth are probably slightly negative, though much depends on the monthly data to be released over the next few weeks, starting with Monday’s report on consumer spending . . . → Read More: Goldman’s Take On Q2 GDP: Ongoing Inventory Accumulation Still A Correction Threat
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The BEA has finally admitted something anyone with a modicum of common sense already knew: The recession was far deeper and the “recovery” far weaker than previously reported. Please consider BEA report Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate) Revised Estimates: 2007 through First Quarter 2010 These two graphs show the revisions for real GDP and PCE. The recession was clearly worse than originally estimated (we suspected this already using Gross Domestic Income). In fact real GDP in Q2 2010 was lower than originally reported for Q1 2010. And annualized real GDP is still 0.85% below the pre-recession peak. This means that real GDP . . . → Read More: After Revisions, Real GDP And PCE Even Farther From Previous Peak
Markets in a Flash · · · Whereas Alphaville presents several statutory observations by David Rosenberg as to a variety of reasons over which one “could” be bullishly inclined based on a goal seeked read of the data (if one so chose), his daily letter is once again capped with yet another bearish summation: the bad news more than drowns out all the . . . → Read More: David Rosenberg Looks At The Sugar High Light… And Picks The Dark Much has been made about the recent action in the bond market. Yields have fallen to unheard of levels. The inflationistas and curve steepener traders are bewildered. It’s clear that bond investors are expecting very low inflation in the coming decade, but some fear it is portending far worse. Famed bond guru Bill Gross is worried . . . → Read More: The Yield Curve Is Screaming "SLOWDOWN" But Still No Recession Via Pension Pulse. Advisor Jonathan Tepper (coauthor of the next book I am working Say that a hundred times quickly! Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the “third” estimate . . . → Read More: GDP First Qtr Third Estimate |
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