* Brazil Q2 GDP grows 1.2 pct from Q1 vs 0.7 pct forecast * Economy expands 8.8 percent from year-ago period * Growth will help ruling party presidential candidate (Adds central bank president comments, updates yields) By Luciana Lopez SAO PAULO, Sept 3 (Reuters) – Brazil’s economy grew 8.8 percent in the second quarter, defying forecasts . . . → Read More: UPDATE 6-Brazil’s economy booms in Q2, defying predictions
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Asian stocks rise to two-week high on US manufacturing data; Canon gains. OK, maybe it hasn’t really crashed yet. But the two day, 3 ½ point sell off in the futures for the 30 year Treasury bond (TBT), at the end of last week was the sharpest drop in 18 months. Winston Churchill’s great 1942 quote, which marked the turning of the tide for Britain in WWII, comes . . . → Read More: Is This The Great Bond Market Crash Of 2010? A floundering Jim O’Neill has never seen decoupling as wide as it is now, and the man is now openly hallucinating, seeing every non-developed country as a potential BRIC (see this Friday’s FT OpEd: How Africa can become the next Bric). Well, of course, China needs its resources. Soon every open mine will be a “BRIC” . . . → Read More: Jim O’Neill Suggests It May Be Time For The US To Give Up On Our Own Middle Class, And Focus On China’s Sorry folks, nothing good to extrapolate based on the just released (and soon to be revised lower one final time) GDP data – from Jan Hatzius: “Implications for Q3 growth are probably slightly negative, though much depends on the monthly data to be released over the next few weeks, starting with Monday’s report on consumer spending . . . → Read More: Goldman’s Take On Q2 GDP: Ongoing Inventory Accumulation Still A Correction Threat Q2 annualized came at 1.6%, slightly higher than the revised consensus of 1.4%, and lower than Zero Hedge’s expectation of 1.8%. The fact that this was 0.8% lower than the first number is completely lost on Hal9000. We anticipate the final revision to this number will be sub 1%. And why are we looking at Q2 . . . → Read More: Q2 GDP Revised Down To 1.6% From 2.4%, Beats Revised Expectations Of 1.4% Goldman’s Ed McKelvey is trying to salvage his team’s reputation as the biggest gloom and doomer on Wall Street by explaining why facts and not noise will be responsible for a revised drop of Q2 GDP by not 50%… but 45% of something. What is more interesting are the reasons for the contraction: i) A significantly . . . → Read More: A Glimmer Of Good News: Goldman Raises Its Q2 GDP Estimates To 1.2%, From 1.1%, But Turns Even Gloomier On Q3 When I first arrived in Japan in 1974, international investors widely expected the country to collapse, a casualty of the overnight quadrupling of oil prices to $12 and the global recession that followed. Japanese borrowers were only able to tap foreign debt markets by paying a 200 basis point premium to the market, a condition that . . . → Read More: Why the JGB Market May Be Ready to Collapse More bearish US data came out today, as July durable goods came in at -3.8% MoM vs 0.5% expected vs a revised 0.2% in May and new home sales drop a record 12.1% in July to 276k vs 300k (0% MoM) vs a revised 315k (12.1% MoM) in May. Home prices also fell 0.3% in July . . . → Read More: Time for a bounce in risk? Due to the various inventory and trade deficit overestimates by the CBO, the initial Q2 number is about to be revised much lower: realistically, it will come out at under 1%, although that will likely be saved for the second and final revision: therefore the adjusted number to be reported on Friday will likely be around . . . → Read More: CBO Estimates Stimulus Boosted Q2 GDP By 4.5%, Standalone Number Is Likely Under Around -3.5% |
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